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How’s 2019?
A lot of our clients are asking how 2019 is starting off.
Here’s one thing we notice…
There are more homes to choose from, which is great news for buyers.
In January alone 4,821 homes came on the market in Metro Denver.
That is a 14% increase compared to one year ago.
At our annual Market Forecast, we predicted a more balanced market in 2019, so far it looks like we are trending that way.
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Below is the recap of our Denver Annual Market Forecast!
Why No Bubble
There are several reasons why our Chief Economist does not believe there is a housing bubble today in the U.S.
Below is a slide he shared at our recent market Forecast events.
It shows U.S. Home ownership rate, which is simply the percentage of the population who own their home (versus renting).
The long-term average is 65% represented by the red line.
In the graph you can clearly see the bubble forming. Starting in the mid-90’s, driven by several political and economic factors, more people than ever before became homeowners.
Then, starting in, 2008, the bubble burst and the percentage tumbled back down.
Now, as you can see, we are back at a “normal” level that resembles the long-term average.
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If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to us. We would be happy to put it in your hands.
Misery Index
Last week at our Market Forecast events, Chief Economist Matthew Gardner shared, among many stats, his famous “Misery Index.”
A valuable statistic with a funny title.
The Misery Index simply measures inflation plus unemployment.
It’s an effective way to look at our Nation’s economy.
Today’s Index sits just below 6%. Back in October 2011, it was close to 13%.
The lowest it has been in the last 7 years is October 2015 when it was near 5%.
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If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to us.
We would be happy to put it in your hands.
Our Forecast
This past Wednesday and Thursday evenings we had the pleasure of hosting our annual Market Forecast events in Denver and Fort Collins.
Thank you to the 700 people who attended. We appreciate your support!
In case you missed the events, here are some highlights including our forecast for price appreciation in 2019:
• In 2018 Prices went up:
o 8% in Fort Collins
o 8% in Loveland
o 8.5% in Greeley
o 8% in Metro Denver
• Inventory is (finally) showing signs of increasing:
o Up 25% in Northern Colorado
o Up 45% in Metro Denver
• There are distinct differences in months of inventory across different price ranges = opportunity for the move up buyer.
• There are several reasons why we don’t see a housing bubble forming:
o New home starts along the Front Range are roughly 60% of pre-bubble highs 14 years ago.
o Americans have more equity in their homes than ever, $6 Trillion!
o The average FICO score of home buyers is significantly higher than the long-term average.
o The home ownership rate is back to the long-term average.
• Our 2019 Price Appreciation Forecast:
o 6% in Fort Collins
o 6% in Loveland
o 7% in Greeley
o 6% in Metro Denver
If you would like a copy of the presentation, go ahead and reach out to us. We would be happy to put it in your hands!
Beautiful Ranch Style Home Located in desirable Governors Ranch!
This beautiful ranch style home at 1390 Settlers Dr has a spacious and open floor plan with enough bedrooms and bonus space for all of your needs. A large flagstone patio in the front and concrete patio in the back offer lots of options for spending time outdoors. The enclosed sun-room allows you to enjoy all 300+ days of sunshine Colorado has to offer. The front bonus room could be used as a study or formal dining room, which ever works best for your lifestyle. Contact Anali Siegle for your private showing at (970) 829-8818 for more information or click the link below for more details.
Upscale Two Story Home in Hunters Run!
This high end “Smart Home” at 3389 New Castle Dr comes with open floor plan nestled by the foothills. Complete with 4 bedrooms each with their own bathroom, a loft, mountain views & over 5,000 Sq ft of living space. High end finishes include granite counter-tops, hardwood floors, stainless steel appliances and a large master suite with 2 walk-in closets. The exterior boasts a large lot that backs to the neighborhood trail. Down the street you’ll find the community pool, playground and easy access to Mehaffey Park! Contact Natalie Abraham for your private showing at (970) 815-1347 for more information or click the link below for more details.
More Choices
Great news for buyers! There are more homes to choose from. It seems there is relief from the days of drastically low inventory levels.
Compared to a year ago, residential inventory levels are up:
• 9% in Northern Colorado (Larimer & Weld Counties)
• 45% in Metro Denver (wow!)
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You can get many more fun facts like these plus get our predictions on the 2019 market by joining our annual Market Forecast. Just click the link below!
https://www.eventbrite.com/o/windermere-real-estate-12011801121
Fantastic Ranch Style Town-home in Fort Collins!
This fantastic end unit town-home at 3549 Red Mountain Dr features an open floor plan, a spacious kitchen, vaulted ceilings, a main level master, and a second bedroom or office. Fully finished basement with three additional bedrooms, bath, and sprawling recreation room. One car detached garage, carport and additional parking. Newer furnace, AC, paint and flooring. Super close to schools, shopping, and public transportation. Contact Jon Holsten for your private showing at (970) 237-2752 for more information or click the link below for more details.
Waiting and Waiting
Anytime the market cools off we sometimes hear prospective buyers say “I think I’ll wait for the market to correct, then I’ll buy after prices come way down.”
The reality is this… History shows that this wouldn’t be a good strategy.
Our go-to source on price appreciation is the Federal Housing Finance Authority who produces a quarterly home price index. They have been tracking Larimer County for 41 years.
Their numbers show:
- Yearly prices have decreased only 6 times in history
- The average amount of that decrease is only 1.7%
So, someone who is waiting for prices to drop:
- Might be waiting a long time
- Might be disappointed that prices didn’t drop by all that much
Fantastic Move in Ready Ranch Style Home in Loveland!
This fantastic ranch-style home on a cul-de-sac at 2650 W 44th St in Loveland’s popular Mountain Vista neighborhood comes with an open floor plan, updated kitchen, and an updated main level bathroom. Two bedrooms on the main level and a third with a rec room and full bath in the basement. Enjoy entertaining and relaxing in the low-maintenance, fully-fenced back yard. Contact Jon Holsten for your private showing at (970) 237-2752 for more information or click the link below for more details.
