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Hot and Not
Where are the hottest markets in Northern Colorado?
Hint – it starts with “W”
Turns out the communities with the largest increase in year over year sales are… (drum roll please)
Windsor and Wellington!
Windsor transactions are up 22% more than last year. Wellington has seen an 11% increase.
All other NoCo communities are flat or lower than last year.
For example, Boulder transactions are down 9% compared to 2015.
Certainly one of the reasons for the uptick in Wellington and Windsor is the amount of inventory available to choose from and specifically inventory in the lower price ranges.
So, while prices are up everywhere, only two places have seen more sales than last year.
The Mountain Market
With fall right around the corner many of us will be trekking up to Estes Park to see the Aspen leaves turning.
As you drive through Estes you may wonder “how’s the mountain market?”
Here are some fun facts about real estate in Estes Park.
- The average price today is $394,046 – not that different than Fort Collins.
- Average prices have gone up $60,000 in the last three years.
- Their market has about 300 sales per year- roughly a tenth of the amount in Fort Collins.
- If you were looking for a home in Estes between $300,000 and $500,000, you would have 15 to choose from.
Now you know about the Mountain Market!
Door Opens for Buyers
After a very active (to say the least) spring and summer, the door has now opened for buyers in our market.
Buyers who were frustrated during the first half of the year with low inventory and bidding wars now realize a better environment. It’s time to step off the sidelines and take a fresh look at what the market has to offer.
The first piece of good news is that rates have dropped to near all-time lows. Rates today are 0.6% lower than they were on January 1st. What this means on a $400,000 home with a conventional loan is a monthly savings of $110!
The second piece of good news is that inventory levels are coming up. There are more homes on the market to pick from and lower demand because of seasonal slowing. Months of inventory in Larimer County markets have bounced up 20% to 33%.
Seasonal Slowdown
August marks the end of the busy real estate selling season and the beginning of the traditional seasonal slowdown in our market.
The four months of April, May, June and July tend to produce 45% of the year's total sales. This is based on looking back at 5 years of data.
If 2016 holds true to form, the next five months from now until the end of the year will be progressively slower.
No surprise that December tends to be the slowest month with a third of the number of sales compared to a typical July.
Here's what we will be watching closely over the next few months – is this year's seasonal slowdown "normal", or, because the market has been so hot this year, is it breaking traditional trends.
We will be sure to keep you informed!
Mis-Match
Our market is under-supplied. Plain and simple. There is a 1 to 2-month supply of homes across Northern Colorado. A balanced market would have 6 months.
So, home builders to the rescue right? Not so fast. Home builders, for various reasons, have a very hard time matching the market.
75% of sales in Northern Colorado are below $400,000. Only 16% of new home inventory in Northern Colorado is below $400,000. That is a mismatch.
Builders are faced with high land costs, high materials cost, high labor costs, high permitting costs and high water costs. It’s pretty much impossible, in most parts of our market, to deliver a new home under $400,000.
So, condominiums to the rescue right? Not so fast. Because of onerous construction defect laws, developers do not want to build multi-family, for sale product. It’s too risky. They’d rather build apartments.
Our market is under-supplied. Plain and simple.
This is really good news if you are a seller who wants to move up. This is especially good news if you are a seller of a condominium.
Contact us to find out what our under-supplied market has done to the value of your home. We’ll put together an Equity Snapshot which will show you, in detail, what your home is worth in today’s market. It’s valuable information to have whether you are thinking of selling or not. Just call 970-460-3033 or e-mail us at fortcollins@windermere.com.
