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How’s 2019?
A lot of our clients are asking how 2019 is starting off.
Here’s one thing we notice…
There are more homes to choose from, which is great news for buyers.
In January alone 4,821 homes came on the market in Metro Denver.
That is a 14% increase compared to one year ago.
At our annual Market Forecast, we predicted a more balanced market in 2019, so far it looks like we are trending that way.
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Below is the recap of our Denver Annual Market Forecast!
Waiting and Waiting
Anytime the market cools off we sometimes hear prospective buyers say “I think I’ll wait for the market to correct, then I’ll buy after prices come way down.”
The reality is this… History shows that this wouldn’t be a good strategy.
Our go-to source on price appreciation is the Federal Housing Finance Authority who produces a quarterly home price index. They have been tracking Larimer County for 41 years.
Their numbers show:
- Yearly prices have decreased only 6 times in history
- The average amount of that decrease is only 1.7%
So, someone who is waiting for prices to drop:
- Might be waiting a long time
- Might be disappointed that prices didn’t drop by all that much
83 Miles Per Hour
Pretend you have been driving on the Interstate at 100 miles per hour.
Also, pretend you have been doing that for a long time.
Now pretend you slow down to 83 miles per hour.
How would that feel?
It would probably feel slow, right?
83 miles per hour is a 17% decrease from 100. It may feel slow, but it’s still pretty fast.
How does this relate to real estate?
Well, the market has been moving fast for a long time.
It’s been going 100 miles per hour for at least two years (some would argue even longer).
We’ve recently seen a 17% change in terms of number of transactions that are occurring.
There were 17% fewer sales in October 2018 versus October 2017 in Metro Denver.
It feels slow because we’ve been driving so fast for so long. But, our market is still moving.
For example, prices are still up. So, remember, that it’s all relative.
Good News for Buyers
Here’s some good news for buyers who have been waiting for more selection…
No need to wait any more because the numbers show that more new listings are hitting the market compared to the recent past.
In Metro Denver, the number of homes for sale is up 14.42% compared to last year.
That equates to 800 more homes to choose from.
Start spreading the news!
What’s Starting?
Here are some interesting stats from our friends at Metro Study who study new home activity along the Front Range.
• New home starts are up 14% compared to last year – this is really good news and is helping to relieve the shortage of housing inventory
• Every product type saw an increase in starts compared to last year (single family, town-home and condominium)
• Condominiums saw the largest increase in starts by a long shot, up 112% over last year- this is excellent news for first time buyers and those looking for product in lower price ranges.
The Cost of Waiting
It’s true, certain parts of our market are cooling off. We are seeing fewer multiple offers, fewer bidding wars, and fewer inspection concessions.
However, homes that are priced right and in great condition are selling, and in many cases, selling quickly.
As buyers feel the market cool a bit, it may cause them to want to wait. They sometimes feel like it’s a better choice to ‘wait and see what happens.’
The reality is, there is a real cost to waiting given two specific facts.
1. Interest rates will continue to rise
2. Prices will continue to rise
Interest rates are a little more than 0.5% higher than a year ago and experts predict them to be another 0.5% higher by this time next year.
Prices have been appreciating at roughly 10% per year for the last four years. Based on the numbers, we see that appreciation could be 5% per year for the next two years.
So, let’s look at a house priced at $450,000 today. If prices go up “only” 5% for the next 12 months, that home will cost $22,500 more in a year.
And, if rates go up another half percent, the monthly payment will be $206 higher. That’s an 11% increase!
In an environment of rising prices and rising rates, there is a real cost to “wait and see.”
Interesting Takeaways
The Zillow Group just completed an extensive survey of home buyers and sellers. Here are some interesting takeaways from the research:
- Half of today’s home buyers are under the age of 36, and 47 percent are first-time buyers. Solo home buyers are in the minority;
most buyers are shopping with a spouse or partner (73 percent). - Eighty-three percent of buyers are shopping for a single-family house. Their top considerations are affordability and being in a safe neighborhood.
- Today’s sellers are most often members of Generation X (38 percent), and the majority (63 percent of all sellers) are listing a home for the first time.
- Most sellers are trading their homes for one they see as an upgrade, seeking a median of 100 more square feet and a home that costs an average of 11 percent more.
- Sellers’ top regret was that they didn’t take more time to prepare for a sale (30 percent). (By the way, Windermere’s Certified Listing is a proven 10-step process which prepares both the home and our clients for the sale. Let us know if you want to know more about it.)
Top 5
A new report from Veros Real Estate Solutions, which works in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, shows the strongest and weakest markets for the next 12 months ending in Sept. 1, 2017.
Their Top 5 Markets:
At the bottom of their list is… Atlantic City.
Hot and Not
Where are the hottest markets in Northern Colorado?
Hint – it starts with “W”
Turns out the communities with the largest increase in year over year sales are… (drum roll please)
Windsor and Wellington!
Windsor transactions are up 22% more than last year. Wellington has seen an 11% increase.
All other NoCo communities are flat or lower than last year.
For example, Boulder transactions are down 9% compared to 2015.
Certainly one of the reasons for the uptick in Wellington and Windsor is the amount of inventory available to choose from and specifically inventory in the lower price ranges.
So, while prices are up everywhere, only two places have seen more sales than last year.
Signs of Slowing
It’s not just temperatures cooling off as we transition from summer to fall, there are signs that the market is cooling as well.
The numbers are in and both Loveland and Fort Collins had their slowest August in several years.
Loveland had 127 single family home sales last month. This is 16% lower than August 2015 and the slowest August for Loveland since 2012.
Fort Collins had their slowest August since 2011 with 206 single family sales. This is 13% lower than last year.
This is good news for buyers who may have been reluctant to enter the multiple-offer frenzy that occurred this past spring. It looks like we are moving toward a more “normal” market.
