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Double, Half, Fifth
Today’s inventory of residential properties along the Front Range is…
Double what it was in 2021 (the all-time low)
Half of the long-term average (going back to 1985)
One-fifth of what it was in 2006 (the all-time high)
Half A Month
There is half of a month of inventory on the market. In other words, at the current pace of sales, it would take just two weeks to sell all of the homes currently listed for sale along the Front Range.
By definition, a market is balanced when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory. Anything less than that is a seller’s market.
The current inventory levels give us confidence about the future of price growth along the Front Range.
While we expect the pace of price appreciation to slow, the low supply of properties insulates us against any sort of price decline.
No Foolin’
This is not an April Fool’s joke.
Average prices in Metro Denver just exceeded $700,000 in Metro Denver. Larimer County isn’t far behind.
For the month of March, the average residential sales price in the 5-county Metro Area was $704,000. This does not include Boulder County.
Larimer County was $691,000 and we expect to see an average exceeding $700,000 in the very near future.
It’s also interesting to note the average price for properties currently listed for sale and not sold yet. In Larimer County it is $848,000 and in Metro Denver it is $1,100,000.
You might be asking, why have prices appreciated to this level? Quite simply, supply and demand.
The Front Range has a healthy, growing economy plus an incredibly high quality of life. Meanwhile, standing inventory is low which results in upward pressure on prices.
Standing Low
The standing inventory of residential properties currently for sale is staggeringly low.
The number of active properties for sale is almost 90% below the average for this time of year.
In Metro Denver, there are 1,144 residential properties for sale today.
In Larimer County, there are 136 and in Weld County there are 174.
Current inventory along the Front Range is essentially half of what it was one year ago.
The low standing inventory bolsters our belief that nothing resembling a decline in housing prices is on the horizon. The low supply will continue to put upward pressure on prices.
It is time to register for our annual Market Forecast with Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. This year the event will be hosted online on Thursday February 3rd from 11:00 to 12:00.
You can register at www.ColoradoForecast.com
Slight Increase
A review of the September market stats shows a slight increase in inventory along the Front Range.
The way we currently measure inventory is in days.
Meaning, at the current pace of sales, how many days would it take to sell all of the inventory currently for sale.
The results, based on September’s activity, shows only a slight increase compared to August. This increase can be tied to seasonality as we always experience a slight cooling off of the market heading into the Fall.
Here is what the residential inventory looks like in each of our markets:
- Larimer County = 25 days
- Weld County = 23 days
- Metro Denver = 21 days
Bottom line, the residential market is still very healthy.
Staggering Stat
By definition, a real estate market is balanced when there is 4 to 6 months of inventory currently for sale.
Anything less than 4 to 6 months means a Sellers’ market, anything more means a Buyers’ market.
For example, if there are 1,000 closings per month in a market, the market would be balanced if 4,000 to 6,000 homes were available for sale.
Here is a staggering stat for you…
At the current pace of sales, the Front Range market would need 6 to 7 times more inventory for the market to be balanced.
This is why we don’t see any sort of significant market correction or anything resembling ‘the market crashing.’ Bottom line, the market is still undersupplied.
Here are the numbers:
• Larimer County has 441 properties for sale and would need 2,200 to be balanced.
• Weld County has 322 properties for sale and would need 2,000 to be balanced.
• Metro Denver has 3,023 properties for sale and would need 20,000 to be balanced.
Record Highs
While our temperatures felt like record lows this week, real estate prices have been hitting record highs along the Front Range.
Here is the average price for residential sales so far this year in each of our Front Range markets (includes both single-family and multi-family):
- Fort Collins = $567,000
- Loveland = $449,000
- Windsor = $537,000
- Greeley = $376,000
- Metro Denver = $544,000
These prices are generally up 10% or more compared to last year.
If you are curious to know what your personal property is worth today, even if you aren’t considering moving any time soon, we are happy to do the research for you. Just let us know!
Job Bounce
“How could the real estate market be so strong in the middle of a pandemic?”
That is a fair question and one we hear frequently from our clients.
There are several reasons for this but two stand out.
- Interest rates
- Jobs
Employment has bounced back much quicker than most people expected. When COVID first showed up, the expectation was that many industries would be hit hard for a prolonged period of time.
The reality is that only a few industries were severely impacted by COVID and the rest were able to get back to a near-normal level of business relatively fast.
Additionally, what we find along the Front Range is that our ‘job bounce’ is even better than the national average.
Here are the numbers…
The COVID-peak unemployment rate for the Front Range looked like this:
- Larimer County = 11.1%
- Weld County = 10.1%
- Metro Denver = 12.3%
Today it looks like this:
- Larimer County = 5.2%
- Weld County = 5.2%
- Metro Denver = 6.4%
Nationally, unemployment peaked at 14.8% and now stands at 6.7%.
So, a main reason why demand is high now is because jobs have bounced back, and the bounce is even higher than the average across the country.
Bubble Talk
A hot topic of conversation these days is the prospect of another real estate bubble. People wonder if prices can continue at their current pace and some fear a repeat of 2008.
Because we get asked about this topic so often from our clients, we thought it would make sense to ask our in-house expert, Matthew Gardner.
Matthew is our Chief Economist and was our Keynote Speaker at the Windermere Annual Market Forecast.
During the Forecast presentation, he discussed the bubble concerns and laid out his reasons why he sees no potential of prices bursting along the Front Range.
Quite the opposite actually, he sees that prices will continue to go up, but just not as fast as they have been.
His reasons for no bubble bursting are as follows:
- Record-low inventory – prices cannot crash without a glut of supply on the market
- Highly-qualified buyers – lending guidelines are more stringent today than they have been in our lifetime
- Growing jobs – job growth in Colorado is projected to far outpace the national average this coming year
So, we project a healthy real estate market in 2021.
To see a replay of the Forecast presentation, simply reach out to us, we would be happy to send you the recording.
Supporting Our Communities
Our heart goes out to all the people affected by the wildfires along the Front Range and in our mountain communities.
We are also so appreciative of the brave men and women who are helping protect people and property from the fires.
We want to help and we want to ask for your help.
Through the Windermere Foundation we have set up a fund to benefit the Northern Colorado Chapter of the Red Cross and the Wildland Firefighters Foundation.
The Red Cross is of course helping people displaced by the fires. The Wildland Firefighters Foundation helps firefighters and their families.
The $10,000 fund will match, dollar-for-dollar, any contribution made by our associates, clients and friends.
Please help us reach our goal of contributing $20,000 to these two worthy places.
To contribute simply click HERE.
Thank you for your support!
