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As you’ve probably heard, prices have gone up quite a bit along the Front Range.
Low interest rates, strong demand, lower supply, and a healthy local economy are all contributing to increased prices.
It may interest you to see exactly how much prices have increased since one year ago in the markets where we have the most activity.
Over the last year, Weld County has increased roughly $100,000, Metro Denver $90,000 and Larimer County $60,000.
Specifically, here are the average prices one year ago vs. today:
- Weld County = $426,000 vs. $523,000
- Metro Denver = $523,000 vs. $612,000
- Larimer County = $532,000 vs. $592,000
Listing Averages
While a lot of attention has been paid to increasing sales prices along the Front Range, it is also interesting to look at the average price of properties currently listed for sale.
Did you know, for instance, that the average list price of all the properties currently for sale in Metro Denver is $887,000. Meanwhile, the average closed sales price is $613,000.
In Larimer County it is $793,000 versus an average closed sales price of $601,000.
In Weld County it is $669,000 versus $488,000.
What is causing this? The high number of high-end properties currently for sale pulling up the average.
You might be surprised to hear the number of $1,000,000-plus listings active listings in our market looks like this:
- Metro Denver = 527
- Larimer County = 75
- Weld County = 44
2 to 3
Along the Front Range we have gone from two weeks of inventory to three weeks.
For much of the Spring, there was only two weeks of inventory on the market in most areas. Meaning, it would only take 14 days to sell all of the homes currently for sale.
Now, because the pace of sales has slightly slowed down and there is a bit more inventory, there is roughly three weeks.
We can actually measure inventory in number of days based on the pace of sales in July so far:
- Metro Denver = 23 Days
- Larimer County = 22 Days
- Weld County = 22 Days
This is obviously good news for buyers as they have better selection and slightly less competition.
Inventory Uptick
We are noticing a trend that is very good news for buyers.
Inventory has been increasing over the last month which means that buyers now have more properties to consider.
Just in the last week, the number of homes for sale has increased:
13% in Larimer County
12% in Weld County
11% in Metro Denver
If you are a buyer who has been waiting for home properties to look at, now is the time!
High Average
If you watch the weekly statistics that we produce and post on social media, a number that might be jumping off the screen at you is the average price.
Specifically, it is the percentage increase in average price versus last year that is striking.
We are commonly asked ‘how could average prices increase 20% to 30% in one year?’
It is important to note prices haven’t appreciated up to 30%, it’s only the average price that has increased by that amount.
A key reason why average prices have increased by such a significant amount is that there are many more luxury properties selling this year versus last year.
Sales of properties priced over $1,000,000 have seen a substantial increase compared to 2020.
Look at these numbers which show the year over year increase in closed transactions for real estate priced over $1 million:
- Larimer County = 159%
- Weld County = 247%
- Metro Denver = 137%
So, transactions of luxury properties have much more than doubled compared to 2020 which is pulling up the average sales price in a significant way.
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Pendings are Popping
Temperatures may be cooling off but the Front Range real estate market is not.
Typically the market starts to slow down a bit in the Fall after a hot Spring and Summer.
Not this year.
The indicator we use to measure future closed sales is current pending sales.
Simply, we look at the number of properties under contract and scheduled to close versus the same time last year.
Current pending sales are way up along the Front Range when measured against 2019:
Metro Denver up 34.1%
Larimer County up 48.6%
Weld County up 50.2%
Based on these numbers, closed sales numbers over the next 60 days will be very strong.
At Least List
Periodically we track a stat which we find to be quite interesting.
It answers this question – how many properties are selling for at least list price (asking price or higher)?
This stat tells us how active the market is and helps our buyers to realize that, in some cases, they will be in a competitive situation.
When we look at single-family home sales so far this month, this is what we find:
- 57% of properties in Larimer County sell for at least list price
- 62% of properties in Weld County sell for at least list price
So, in well over half of the transactions, buyers need to offer list price or higher to acquire the property.
The data gets even more interesting when this information is broken out by price range.
To no one’s surprise, the percentage increases for properties priced under $400,000:
- 81% in Larimer County
- 70% in Weld County
We find that for properties over $400,000 the percentages still tell a story of a very active market:
- 47% in Larimer County
- 56% in Weld County
Bottom line, in most locations and price ranges we see a strong sellers’ market where buyers need to be prepared to make a strong offer and to also compete.
Tight Inventory
The numbers that we find to be most interesting right now are all related to inventory.
Long story short, inventory is tight.
It was already tight pre-coronavirus and now it’s even tighter.
Here are the numbers.
Active properties for sale versus one year ago are down:
- 11% in Larimer County
- 20% in Weld County
- 26% in Metro Denver
This low inventory is one of several reasons that prices are generally still up across the Front Range.
The 12 Facts of Real Estate
While your true love may be getting you a partridge in a pear tree in the near future, we decided to give you the 12 facts of Colorado real estate:
- 1 is the ranking Colorado owns for long-term home price appreciation versus all other states
- 2.6% unemployment rate in Colorado right now
- 3.73% mortgage rate for a 30-year mortgage which is about half of the long term average
- 4.7% apartment vacancy rate in Metro Denver, the lowest since 2015
- 5.5% is the long-term average for yearly home price appreciation along the Front Range
- 6,000,000 live in Colorado
- 7,000 residential properties are for sale in Metro Denver right now and the average for this time of year is 14,700
- 80,000 is the number of people that is added to our state’s population each year
- 9 homes are for sale in Larimer and Weld County priced over $2,500,000
- -10% is the decrease in new home construction in Larimer County compared to last year while Weld County grew by 17%
- 11 times in the last 40 years home prices have gone up at least 8% along the Front Range
- $1,202,488 is the average price for a single-family home in the City of Boulder
It’s time to register for our annual Market Forecast event. We will be live at 5:30 on January 16th at the Marriott in Fort Collins. Back by popular demand is our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Save your seat HERE.
