Temperatures may be cooling off but the Front Range real estate market is not.
Typically the market starts to slow down a bit in the Fall after a hot Spring and Summer.
Not this year.
The indicator we use to measure future closed sales is current pending sales.
Simply, we look at the number of properties under contract and scheduled to close versus the same time last year.
Current pending sales are way up along the Front Range when measured against 2019:
Metro Denver up 34.1%
Larimer County up 48.6%
Weld County up 50.2%
Based on these numbers, closed sales numbers over the next 60 days will be very strong.
Periodically we track a stat which we find to be quite interesting.
It answers this question – how many properties are selling for at least list price (asking price or higher)?
This stat tells us how active the market is and helps our buyers to realize that, in some cases, they will be in a competitive situation.
When we look at single-family home sales so far this month, this is what we find:
- 57% of properties in Larimer County sell for at least list price
- 62% of properties in Weld County sell for at least list price
So, in well over half of the transactions, buyers need to offer list price or higher to acquire the property.
The data gets even more interesting when this information is broken out by price range.
To no one’s surprise, the percentage increases for properties priced under $400,000:
- 81% in Larimer County
- 70% in Weld County
We find that for properties over $400,000 the percentages still tell a story of a very active market:
- 47% in Larimer County
- 56% in Weld County
Bottom line, in most locations and price ranges we see a strong sellers’ market where buyers need to be prepared to make a strong offer and to also compete.
The numbers that we find to be most interesting right now are all related to inventory.
Long story short, inventory is tight.
It was already tight pre-coronavirus and now it’s even tighter.
Here are the numbers.
Active properties for sale versus one year ago are down:
- 11% in Larimer County
- 20% in Weld County
- 26% in Metro Denver
This low inventory is one of several reasons that prices are generally still up across the Front Range.
While your true love may be getting you a partridge in a pear tree in the near future, we decided to give you the 12 facts of Colorado real estate:
- 1 is the ranking Colorado owns for long-term home price appreciation versus all other states
- 2.6% unemployment rate in Colorado right now
- 3.73% mortgage rate for a 30-year mortgage which is about half of the long term average
- 4.7% apartment vacancy rate in Metro Denver, the lowest since 2015
- 5.5% is the long-term average for yearly home price appreciation along the Front Range
- 6,000,000 live in Colorado
- 7,000 residential properties are for sale in Metro Denver right now and the average for this time of year is 14,700
- 80,000 is the number of people that is added to our state’s population each year
- 9 homes are for sale in Larimer and Weld County priced over $2,500,000
- -10% is the decrease in new home construction in Larimer County compared to last year while Weld County grew by 17%
- 11 times in the last 40 years home prices have gone up at least 8% along the Front Range
- $1,202,488 is the average price for a single-family home in the City of Boulder
It’s time to register for our annual Market Forecast event. We will be live at 5:30 on January 16th at the Marriott in Fort Collins. Back by popular demand is our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Save your seat HERE.
Here are the vital signs for the Northern Colorado market.
First, Larimer County:
- Average prices are up 2.4%
- Number of transactions is down 2.5%
- Inventory is up 11.9%
- Days on market is up 4.1%
Now, Weld County:
- Average prices are up 4.3%
- Number of transactions is up 3.6%
- Inventory is up 12.9%
- Days on market is flat (same as last year)
What this means is prices are still going up, just not as fast as they were a couple of years ago. More inventory is coming on the market which is great news for buyers.
This is a Tale of Two Counties.
When it comes to new home activity, there is a big difference between Larimer and Weld Counties.
Larimer County’s new home starts are down 10% and new home closings are down 15% compared to last year.
Weld County’s new home starts are up 18% and new home closings are up 8% compared to last year.
This is all according to the new home research experts and Metrostudy.
So why the difference? It comes down to price and availability.
There is more land available for new home development in Weld County.
Plus, the land tends to be less-expensive than Larimer which means that builders can deliver a lower-priced product and reach a larger pool of buyers.
The average price of a new home in Larimer County is $507,105 while the average new home price in Weld is $411,269.
So how much real estate is sold in Northern Colorado?
As it turns out, a lot!
Last month alone there were 1,099 single family homes that sold in Larimer and Weld Counties
The average price was $429,144 which means the total sales volume for one month was $471,629,129 (almost a half a billion)!
Over the last 12 months, just over $4.5 billion worth of single-family homes have sold.
That’s a lot of real estate!
As we are helping people understand their new property assessments and putting together information so that they may protest their new valuation, here is the most common question we hear…
Did my property really go up that much?
Here are some stats that will help you answer that question.
First, you need to know that property assessments are done by the County every two years. So, as you look at how much your property increased in value according to the County, keep in mind that this increase is over a two-year period.
Next, it will help you to know how much our markets increased, on average, over the last two years. This data comes from our most trusted source, the Federal Housing Finance Authority.
Two Year Appreciation:
• Metro Denver = 18.65%
• Larimer County = 17.60%
• Weld County = 22.31%
• Boulder County = 16.28%
If you have questions about your new valuation or how to protest your property’s assessment, we would be happy to help. Just reach out and let us know.
A stat we find interesting is the relationship between the inventory for sale versus what is actually selling.
We are curious to know if the inventory that is for sale lines up with what the buyers want.
Here’s what we notice…
In Larimer County, 23% of all the single family homes for sale are priced under $400,000. No surprise, this is a popular price range among buyers and it represents 45% of all sales.
So, the ratio is 23% of the inventory versus 45% of the sales.
In Weld County, the difference is more pronounced.
Homes under $400,000 represent 44% of the inventory and 69% of the sales.
Because the percentage of sales is higher than the percentage of inventory, properties under $400,000 will sell much quicker and are more likely to have multiple offers.
To see the latest on the market, be sure to check out a copy of the new Gardner Report, our Chief Economist’s quarterly look at Front Range real estate.
While the “Bomb Cyclone” closed roads and schools over the last two days, the “Condo Cyclone” is opening new opportunities for first-time buyers.
What’s the “Condo Cyclone” you ask. It’s the proliferation of multi-family inventory that has come on the market up and down the Front Range.
Compared to last year, multi-family inventory which includes town-homes and condominiums, has increased…
• 79% in Metro Denver
• 34% in Larimer County
• 45% in Weld County
This is terrific news for the market overall, as inventory has been unusually low for several months. It’s especially terrific news for first-time buyers who need this type of product as a stepping stone to home ownership.
What we notice is a $170,000 to $130,000 difference in average price between a single-family home and a multi-family home in Front Range markets.
Specifically, here’s the spread between multi-family and single-family average price:
• $349,801 vs. $512,312 in Metro Denver
• $312,493 vs. $469,294 in Larimer County
• $237,645 vs. $370,027 in Weld County
So as we dig out from the “Bomb Cyclone” we can be happy for the “Condo Cyclone” which brings more affordability and opportunity to our markets!
Just Released (a new resource site just for you…)
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