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FRIDAY FUN FACTS – Transitioning into Fall
As we transition from September to October, the real estate market is showing signs of stability and balance. Inventory levels are beginning to flatten out, providing buyers with more options to choose from. Sellers are becoming more flexible, willing to negotiate, make repairs, and offer concessions to close deals.
- Active Listings: The number of active listings has remained consistent compared to the previous week, although inventory levels are notably higher than this time last year.
- New Listings: There has been an increase in new listings both week over week and year over year, indicating growing seller confidence.
- Pending Transactions: The number of pending transactions has remained relatively flat, and the market’s supply of inventory has held steady.
- Odds of Selling: While the Odds of Selling have risen slightly, they remain below historical averages, reflecting the ongoing dynamics of the market.
- Showings: Showings have seen a minor decline from the previous week but are higher compared to the same period last year. Homes are staying on the market longer, giving buyers more time to consider their options.
- Price Reductions: The prevalence of price reductions has increased, with a larger percentage of homes adjusting their prices before entering into contracts. Additionally, the size of these price reductions has also shown an uptick.
Buyers currently have increased negotiating power, as sellers are more willing to engage in negotiations and make concessions. With a stable inventory and a market that offers more time for decision-making, now may be an opportune time for buyers to explore their options.
For personalized insights and guidance tailored to your specific real estate goals, feel free to reach out to our team at Windermere Real Estate. We are here to help you make informed decisions and seize the opportunities presented by the current market conditions.
Fourth of July Slowdown
Showings during the week of the 4th is one of the slowest periods of the year. This data comes from home builders that track the number of potential Buyers that visit the model homes.
This same trend is shown in showing data for resale homes. This trend usually only lasts for the week, though, and showings tend to pick back up the second week of July.
The good news is that the buyers that are looking during this week are typically quite serious about finding a home.
We at Windermere hope you have a fun and safe Independence Day holiday weekend!
Showings to Sell
How many showings will a property have before it sells?
In Northern Colorado, the answer is eight.
This is according to our local MLS system called IRES which tracks the median number of showings a property has before going under contract.
This information is valuable to sellers so they can have realistic expectations while starting the process of selling their home.
It is also a useful guideline to gauge if a property is priced correctly. If a home has had more than eight showings but is not under contract yet, there may be an issue with the price and/or condition.
Counterintuitively, this statistic is lower today than it was in the hot market of 2021. Back then the median was 12 in Larimer County and 10 in Weld County.
The reason why it was higher then, even though the market was stronger, is because there were many more buyers looking at properties. Back then there were so many buyers that many homes only allowed 15-minute showing windows in order to accommodate all of the people who wanted to see homes.
Spring in Summer
This year the Spring market is occurring in the Summer.
Typically the busiest months for real estate along the Front Range are April, May and June.
This year, because showing activity was restricted in the Spring months, we are seeing robust activity this Summer.
Here’s an indicator. Sales through July 2020 versus July 2019 are up:
- 12.6% in Metro Denver
- 17% in Northern Colorado
To see double-digit increases in sales despite was is occurring in the National economy, is nothing short of remarkable.
Caught Up
We’ve been waiting for June to catch up. It finally happened (almost).
Back in April, real estate activity was significantly limited and the showing of property was restricted which caused the number of closed properties in May and early June to be much lower than last year.
Bottom line, fewer properties going under contract in April caused fewer closings 30 to 45 days later.
Closed properties in May were down compared to 2019 by 44% in Northern Colorado and 43% in Metro Denver.
Then activity jumped significantly in May. The number of properties going under contract was way up compared to last year.
We’ve been wondering when we would see this sales activity reflected in the number of closed properties.
Well, it finally happened (almost).
The number of closings so far in June compared to the same time period through June of 2019 is only down 1.8% in Northern Colorado and 1.6% in Metro Denver.
In both markets, there are only a handful of closings separating activity in June 2020 versus June 2019.
By the end of the month, when all the transactions are tallied up, we expect that June of this year will out pace June of last year in terms of number of transactions.
This is significant not only because of COVID-19, but also because of the reduced inventory compared to last year. Quite simply, there are fewer homes to buy.
All of this speaks to the health and resiliency of the Front Range market.
Pent Up Demand
We notice a very interesting dynamic in the market right now.
There was clearly a pent-up real estate demand created during the recent time when in-person showings were not allowed. The numbers back it up.
First, a little background. During a portion of “Shelter in Place,” all in-person viewing of properties ceased. Instead, buyers spent time online viewing virtual tours and 3-D photography.
Even though clients could view homes virtually, purchase activity did slow down.
Today, showings are allowed again as long as clear protocols are followed. We’ve implemented a Safe Showings program to keep our clients protected.
Now, to the numbers.
Through the first two weeks of May 2020, the number of closed properties is down compared to the same time period in 2019.
In most cases these closed properties are a result of purchase agreements that were written in April- a time when in-person showings were restricted.
So, a decrease in closings was expected.
However, the number of new written contracts so far this month is up considerably compared to the same time frame last year.
Specifically,
- Metro Denver closed properties down 47%
- Metro Denver new contracts up 6%
- Northern Colorado closed properties down 41%
- Northern Colorado new contracts up 19%
So, buyer activity is up compared to last year, even in our current environment.
This speaks to the resiliency of our market and the effect of low interest rates.
What the Numbers Say
April represents the first time we can look at the impact of COVID-19 on a full month of real estate activity.
To no one’s surprise, activity in April in terms of closings and new contracts did slow significantly.
Much of this slowing was caused by in person showings not being allowed for most of the month.
(showings are now allowed again by following Safe Showings protocols)
Here’s what the numbers say…
Closed transactions were down compared to April 2019
- 26% in Northern Colorado (Larimer & Weld)
- 27% in Metro Denver
New written purchase agreements were down compared to April 2020
- 48% in Northern Colorado
- 44% in Metro Denver
So, while activity did slow, there was nothing resembling a “screeching halt” that took place.
While the way property is shown has certainly changed, the market is still very active and we expect activity to increase even more with showings now being allowed again.
