Fun Facts February 23, 2024

Normal Timing

After three years of abnormally low Days on Market, properties today are settling into a more normal and more reasonable length of time on the market.

Days on Market today stands at:

53 Days in Larimer County

66 Days in Weld County

Back in 2021, for example, Days on Market was roughly half of today’s number.

Buyers today are discerning, and proper pricing is more important than ever in order to meet a Seller’s timing goals.

Fun Facts January 19, 2024

More Normal Range

The length of time that it takes for a property to sell is settling into a more normal range.

“Days on Market” is an insightful statistic that counts how long it takes for a property to go from live on the market to sold.

Today measurement stands at 72 days in Larimer County and 74 days in Weld County.

From January 2021 to November 2022, Days on Market never went above 60. This time period was defined by incredibly high demand and drastically low supply.

The time frame of January 2018 to December 2020, which was more ‘normal,’ had Days on Market between 60 and 90 days.

Fun Facts June 23, 2023

The Listing Solstice

Wednesday marked the first official day of summer and the longest day of the year.

Coincidentally, the research shows us that listings are taking far longer to sell than one year ago.

Specifically, days on market has increased by the following amounts in our market versus exactly one year ago:

 

Larimer County: 210%

Weld County: 100%

Metro Denver: 122%

 

Even though days on market is up significantly over one year ago, properties are selling faster on average than what is considered ‘normal.’

Over the last 10 years, average days on market has been between 70 and 50 days. So, while properties are taking longer to sell versus the market of one year ago, they are still selling much faster than normal.

Fun Facts November 4, 2022

A Numbers Game

Here’s a fun fact. Generally speaking, a Seller should expect to have between 8 and 13 showings before receiving an offer.

The exact number of course depends on price point and location.

So, how quickly a property sells depends upon how quickly those showings are generated.

The old adage of ‘it’s just a numbers game’ is true.

A certain number of people need to look at a home before someone makes an offer.

If a home isn’t generating showings, it is usually because the property is priced too aggressively, isn’t being marketed professionally, or both.

For a Seller to have a property sell along the Front Range, their simple mission can be to generate 8 to 13 showings.

Fun Facts July 22, 2022

More Days

A stat that we have expected to change is finally changing.

“Days on Market” measures how long it takes for new listings to sell.

Over the last two years this stat plummeted to levels we have never seen before.

In the height of the market frenzy a year ago, properties were taking 7 days or less to sell on average.

Now, with the market cooling, Days on Market is back into double-digits.

Northern Colorado is at 20 days, a 54% increase over last year.

Metro Denver is at 12 days which is a 50% increase.

Real Estate Statistics November 12, 2021

Price Matters

Almost twice as many sellers now have to drop their list price before a sale compared to July.

In October, 19% of all sales were forced to drop the list price before receiving an offer.  In July it was 10%.

These properties that start out priced too high end up taking four times as long to sell compared to those that are priced right on day one.

The bottom line is this- price matters even in a strong market.

BlogColorado Real EstateReal Estate Market Update November 1, 2021

Q3 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

 

Regional Economic Overview

The rise in COVID-19 infections due to the Delta variant caused Colorado’s job recovery to slow, but not as much as in many other states. The latest data (for August) shows that more than 293,000 of the 376,000+ jobs that were shed due to COVID-19 have returned. This is good news, with only 83,000 jobs needed to return to pre-pandemic employment levels. The metro areas contained in this report have recovered 243,700 of the 310,000 jobs lost, and I expect the state will recover the remaining jobs by next summer. With employment levels improving, the state unemployment rate currently stands at 5.9%—down from the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 4.4% in Boulder to a high of 6.1% in Grand Junction.

 

__________

 

Colorado Home Sales

❱ In the third quarter, 14,209 homes sold. This was 6.8% lower than a year ago, but 5.8% higher than the second quarter of 2021.

❱ Compared to a year ago, listing activity was down more than 30%. However, inventory levels were up 38.3% compared to the second quarter of this year, suggesting that buyers have more choice now than they have seen in some time.

❱ Although comparing current sales activity with that of a year ago is not that informative—given that the country was experiencing a massive rebound in housing demand following the outbreak of COVID-19—it was pleasing to see sales up in every county other than Denver and Douglas compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ Pending sales (an indicator of future closings) were down 5.4% compared to the second quarter of the year, suggesting that closings in the final quarter may well be a little soft.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

__________

 

Colorado Home Prices

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

❱ Prices continue to appreciate at a very rapid pace, with the average sale price up 15.8% year over year to an average of $605,576. Sale prices were 1.6% lower than in the second quarter of 2021.

❱ Four counties—Arapahoe, Douglas, Weld, and Park—saw the average home sale price pull back between the second quarter and the third, but I am not overly concerned by this at the present time.

❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report. All counties except Arapahoe saw double-digit gains, but even that market saw an increase in sale prices.

❱ Several counties are experiencing a drop in average list prices, which is a leading indicator of future activity. As such, I expect to see the rise of sale prices start to slow, which will be a welcome sight for many buyers.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

__________

 

Days on Market

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 17 days compared to the third quarter of 2020.

❱ The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to both the same quarter a year ago and the second quarter of this year.

❱ It took an average of only 12 days to sell a home in the region, which is down 2 days compared to the second quarter of 2021.

❱ The Colorado housing market remains very tight as demonstrated by the fact that it took less than three weeks for homes to sell in all counties contained in this report.

 

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

__________

 

Conclusions

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado during the third quarter of 2021.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The job market continues to improve, which is always a stimulant when it comes to home buying. Inventory levels have improved, and lower pending sales suggest that buyers are taking a little longer to decide on a home. That said, the market is still bullish as indicated by the short length of time it took to sell a home in the quarter. Mortgage rates will start to creep higher as we move into the winter months, and this may stimulate additional buying activity. In the last edition of The Gardner Report, I suggested we would see more homes come to market and that has proven to be accurate. Given these factors, I am moving the needle a little toward buyers, but it remains a staunchly seller’s market.

 

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

BlogColorado Real EstateReal Estate Market Update August 18, 2021

Q2 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Although the post COVID-19 job recovery took a step backward last winter, it has since picked up again, which is very pleasing to see. At the end of the second quarter, the state had recovered more than 276,000 of the 376,000+ jobs that were shed due to COVID-19. Even though employment levels are still almost 100,000 lower than the pre-pandemic peak, they are heading in the right direction. Looking at the markets contained in this report, current employment levels in Colorado Springs are only 2.2% below the pre-pandemic peak, followed by Denver and Fort Collins, which are both down 3.6% from the 2020 peak. I would add that all markets showed jobs continuing to return. With total employment levels rising, the unemployment rate stands at 6.2%, down from the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 4.8% in Boulder to a high of 6.3% in Grand Junction. COVID-19 infection rates dropped during the quarter, which is certain to lead to employment levels continuing to rise unless we see another significant increase in infection rates due to the rise of new variants across the country.

 

COLORADO HOME SALES

❱ The late spring/early summer market was a good one for home sales, which were up 33.9% from a year ago. Comparing the current quarter to a period when COVID-19 was widespread is not that informative, but, with sales up more than 55% from the first quarter of this year, the market appears to be very buoyant.

❱ Sales were higher in all counties other than the very small Clear Creek County. Where sales rose, they did so at double-digit rates in all markets other than Weld.

❱ During the second quarter, 13,428 homes sold. This is very impressive but not overly surprising, given that the average number of homes for sale was up 45% from the first quarter.

❱ Another positive was that pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, were 42.8% higher than in the first quarter. This suggests that closings next quarter should be positive as well.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sales for various counties in Colorado.

 

COLORADO HOME PRICES

A map showing the real estate market percentage changes in various counties in Colorado.

❱ Prices continue to appreciate at an impressive pace, recording an increase of 28.1% year over year to an average of $615,409. Home prices were also 10.7% higher than the first quarter of this year.

❱ Buyer demand remains very strong, likely exacerbated by the drop in mortgage rates in the second quarter and improving levels of inventory.

❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report, with the exception of Clear Creek County. Of the markets that saw prices rise, all did so by double digits, with very notable gains in Boulder, Gilpin, and Park counties.

❱ Affordability levels continue to trouble me, and the pace of price appreciation has to slow at some point. The market is clearly still out of balance, but as long as the credit quality of buyers remains high, I do not see any cause for concern.

 

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices for various counties is Colorado.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 14 days compared to the second quarter of 2020.

❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the second quarter of 2020. The exception was Gilpin County, where it rose by only two days.

❱ It took an average of only 14 days to sell a home in the region, which is down 11 days compared to the first quarter of this year.

❱ The Colorado housing market remains very tight, as demonstrated by the fact that it took less than a month for homes to sell in every county other than one.

 

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various counties in Colorado.

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado.

 

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Sales rose on the back of lower mortgage rates and higher levels of homes available to buy. Although this should signify a move back to a more balanced market, we are not there yet as price growth remains well above the long-term average.

With solid demand and favorable financing rates, the market is expected to remain active as we move through the balance of the year. That said, housing affordability is becoming an increasingly large concern. According to the Colorado Association of REALTORS®, statewide affordability for single-family homes has dropped almost 20% year-over-year and is down 17.8% for multi-family homes.

At some point, an affordability ceiling will be reached, which will slow home-price appreciation—but not yet. As such, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of home sellers, as they remain in the driver’s seat, for now.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

BlogBuyers & SellersColorado Real EstateMarket NewsNorthern Colorado Real EstateReal Estate Market Update April 28, 2021

Q1 2021 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Real Estate agent.

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Following the decline in employment last winter, Colorado has started to add jobs back into its economy. The latest data shows that the state has now recovered more than 219,000 of the 376,000+ jobs that were lost due to COVID-19. This is certainly positive, but there is a long way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels. Denver and Fort Collins continue to have the greatest improvement in employment, but all markets show job levels well below pre-pandemic levels. With total employment levels rising, the unemployment rate stands at 6.6%, down from the pandemic peak of 12.1%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 5.6% in Fort Collins and Boulder to a high of 6.7% in Greeley. COVID-19 infection rates have started to increase again, and this has the potential to negatively impact the job market. I am hopeful that the state will not be forced to pull back reopening, but this is certainly not assured.

COLORADO HOME SALES

❱ 2021 started off on a bit of a sour note, with total sales down 1.2% compared to the same period in 2020. Sales were 29.2% lower than in the final quarter of 2020 as 8,645 homes sold.

❱ Sales were higher in four of the counties contained in this report, were essentially flat in one, and dropped in seven. It was pleasing to see significant sales growth in the large counties of Denver and Adams.

❱ Another positive was that pending sales, which are an indicator of future closings, were 4.8% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 5% higher than a year ago.

❱ The disappointing number of home sales overall can primarily be attributed to the woeful lack of inventory. Listings in the quarter were down more than 61% year over year and were 40.6% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2020.

 

COLORADO HOME PRICES

❱ Prices continue to appreciate at a very rapid pace, with the average sale price up 16.5% year over year, to an average of $556,100. Home prices were also 4.4% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ Buyers appear to be out in force, and this demand—in concert with very low levels of inventory—continues to heat the market.

❱ Prices rose over last year across all markets covered by this report, with the exception of the very small Gilpin County. All other counties saw sizeable gains and the trend of double-digit price growth continued unabated.

❱ Affordability levels are becoming a greater concern as prices rise at a far faster pace than wages. Even though mortgage rates have started to rise, they haven’t yet reached the level needed to take some of the heat out of the market.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 20 days compared to the first quarter of 2020.

❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ It took an average of 25 days to sell a home in the region, down one day from the fourth quarter of 2020.

❱ The Colorado housing market remains very tight, as demonstrated by the fact that it took less than a month for homes to sell in all but two counties.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

The relatively low level of home sales is not a surprise given how few choices there are for buyers. Sellers are certainly benefitting from strong demand, as demonstrated by the significant price growth. I maintain my belief that there will be an increase in inventory as we move through the year, but it is highly unlikely that we will see a balanced market in 2021.

Given these factors, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of sellers, as demand is likely to continue to exceed supply.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

 

BlogColorado HousingColorado Real EstateDenver Real EstateEconomyHousing TrendsMarket NewsWindermere Real Estate February 3, 2021

Q4 2020 Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The job recovery that appeared to be firmly in place in the summer has started to wane. Though Colorado has recovered more than 209,000 of the jobs lost due to COVID-19, employment levels remain almost 210,000 below the level seen last February. Even with employment growth stalling, the unemployment rate stands at a relatively respectable 6.4%, down from a peak of 12.2%. Regionally, unemployment levels range from a low of 5.4% in Boulder to a high of 6.9% in Greeley. Rising COVID-19 infection rates continue to impact the job recovery, and I do not see much in the way of palpable improvement until a vaccine becomes freely available, likely in the second half of this year.

COLORADO HOME SALES

❱ In the final quarter of 2020, 12,207 homes sold. This represents an increase of 21.8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, but 19% lower than in the third quarter. I am not concerned, though, because seasonal influences tend to impact sales in the winter.

❱ Sales rose in all markets other than El Paso compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. I believe sales are only limited by the number of homes on the market.

❱ Inventory levels remain well below what I would like to see. The average number of homes on the market in the fourth quarter was down 55% from the same period in 2019.

❱ Pending sales were 34% lower compared to the third quarter. Again, seasonality and a lack of homes to buy impact this figure. Pending sales are still 13% higher than a year ago.

Colorado Counties Graph

COLORADO HOME PRICES

Price appreciation in various Colorado counties.

❱ Home prices rose significantly in the fourth quarter, with the average price increasing 13.7% year-over-year to $532,492. Prices were up 1.8% compared to the third quarter of this year.

❱ Interest rates are unlikely to drop much further and this will lead price growth to slow as we move through 2021.

❱ Year-over-year, prices rose across all markets covered by this report, with significant appreciation in Clear Creek, Gilpin, Park, and El Paso counties. Every county but Arapahoe saw double-digit price gains.

❱ Affordability in many Colorado markets remains a concern as prices continue to rise at well-above-average rates. That said, I anticipate we will see price growth moderate in 2021.

A bar graph showing the annual change in home sale prices in various Colorado counties.

DAYS ON MARKET

❱ The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report dropped 15 days compared to the final quarter of 2019.

❱ The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in every county contained in this report compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

❱ It took an average of 26 days to sell a home in the region, down 3 days compared to the third quarter of 2020.

❱ The Colorado housing market continues to demonstrate solid demand, and buyers are clearly competitive as suggested by the short length of time it is taking to sell a home.

A bar graph showing the average days on market for homes in various Colorado counties

CONCLUSIONS

A speedometer graph indicating a seller's market in Colorado.

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

Home sales and prices are significantly higher than a year ago, and demand for housing is very much in place. Naturally, this favors home sellers who are still in control of the market. I do expect to see some improvement in listing activity this year, which, in concert with modestly rising interest rates, will likely start to take some of the steam out of the market. However, any moderation in the market has yet to appear. Even given the possible headwinds mentioned above, I am moving the needle a little more in favor of sellers, as demand is likely to exceed supply for the time being.

 

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.