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Over List
A statistic we keep our eye on is the percentage of homes which sell for at least list price.
In a robust, healthy, market with lower inventory, we will frequently see homes selling for their asking price or even higher.
Here are the number of sales that occur for list price or higher in each of our major markets:
• Fort Collins = 60%
• Loveland = 60%
• Greeley = 71%
• Windsor = 56%
There are a couple of things we notice about these numbers. First, well over half of all sales are for at least list price. This means that a buyer needs to be prepared to make a full price offer (or higher) in most cases. This also means that if a seller is priced right and marketed effectively, they should achieve their asking price.
We also notice that these percentages are lower than one year ago. In 2018 these numbers were 5% to 10% higher in each market. This is good news for buyers of course because the bidding wars are not as intense as last year.
Where Are The Sales?
A high-level look at the Northern Colorado region shows that the number of residential sales is down 5.4% in Larimer County and up 4.7% in Weld County. This is simply comparing the number of closings from June 2018 to June 2019 versus June 2017 to June 2018.
The high-level look doesn’t tell the whole story. It get’s more interesting when we look at individual Northern Colorado cities and towns:
• Fort Collins = -8.8%
• Loveland = -5.7%
• Greeley = +11.7%
• Windsor = +16%
• Wellington = -16.9%
• Timnath = +44.1%
• Severance = +20.4%
• Johnstown = -18.7%
• Berthoud = +18.1%
• Evans = -14.7%
So, what can we learn from this? The areas with increased sales are where there is an abundance of new construction (Timnath and Severance for example).
The areas with decreased sales don’t have an abundance of new construction (Fort Collins for example).
The exceptions to this would be Wellington and Johnstown. It appears that there is price sensitivity to the new construction product now being built in these areas. Given rising costs, builders are challenged to deliver a product under $350,000 in these places.
For instance, in Wellington, between June 2017 and June 2018 there were 137 sales of new homes priced under $350,000. Today there are only 6 new homes on the market at that price point.
New Home News!
Nationally, sales of new homes are stronger than they have been in a long time. March was the best month since 2007 and April was the third-best month in that same time period.
This research comes from the National Association of Home Builders who show that we are on pace to sell 673,000 new homes this year across the Country. 5 years ago there were roughly 450,000 sales of new homes.
For the first four months of 2019, new home sales are 6.7% ahead of the sales pace of the initial four months of 2018.
What is interesting is that those gains have distinct regional clustering. Year-to-date sales are up 10.3% in the South, 6.7% in the West (concentrated in the Mountain states), and 1.3% in the Midwest, while recording a 17.6% decline in the Northeast.
Party Like It’s 2018!
Just a few months ago most people thought mortgage rates were heading to 5% and now they are back to where they were a year ago.
You probably saw this week’s news from the Federal Reserve declaring that they would not raise their Federal Funds rate for the rest of 2019
(just three months after saying they would raise rates at least twice this year).
While this is big news, even bigger news for mortgage rates is that the 10-year Treasury yield just hit its lowest point since January 2018. One thing we’ve learned from our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is that mortgage rates follow the 10-year treasury (not necessarily the Fed Funds rate).
Last Spring it looked like mortgage rates had bottomed out and they steadily climbed through the Summer and Fall of 2018. It looked certain that they would hit 5% around January.
Instead they started dropping. Now with the 10-year Treasury at a 15-month low, they just dropped a little more and they are back to where they were a year ago.
Great news for buyers! Party like it’s 2018!
Raise a Glass and Celebrate the New Year!
Sparkles. Confetti. GLITTER. All New Year’s Eve staples. In fact, we’re pretty sure that New Year’s Eve is the quintessential holiday for all things glitter. Whether your plans involve throwing a party or attending one, here are some creative ideas to step up your game.
Confetti Wands: All you need is clear tubes and confetti, how simple is that?! Once you stuff them, lay them out somewhere all your guests can easily find them (so probably by the bar). We know what you’re thinking: “Don’t they make a mess?” Well yes they do, but what fun can you have without making a little mess?! So sparkly and festive!
Bubbly Bar: It’s not a New Year’s Eve party without one of these. A “bubbly bar” allows your guests to taste and personalize their champagne drinks. A bar cart is a great alternative if you want to make the bubbly bar a mobile attraction. They’re the perfect display for your champagne and treats. P.S. metallic straws are totes all the rage. Pop, fizz, clink!
Golden-Brushed Balloons: Go out and get a dozen helium-filled white latex balloons with strings attached. Wear gloves and hold the balloon by the tied end. Use gold enamel paint or “liquid gold leaf” and apply to balloons in quick, upward strokes. Make sure to only gild the bottom third to get this look. OR you could just buy gold balloons if you’re running low on time/gumption/is it 2016 yet?
Sparkly Bottles: Glam up your bottles and make them as sparkling as the wine inside. Grab a can of Super 77 adhesive spray, latex gloves, an old sheet, and as much glitter as you can find. Spray the bottle and sprinkle glitter over the adhesive one section at a time. Repeat until the whole bottle is covered, then shake off the excess glitter and display. Make sure to leave the top third of the bottle clean so you can pop the champagne! Hint: this is probably the easiest, yet most effective way to take your shindig to a whole new level!
Quirky Tip: Add a little extra something by hanging a fortune cookie off of each champagne glass. Everyone is going to want to know what’s in store for them once the clock hits midnight. And we all know fortune cookies always tell the truth.
New Year’s Eve is obviously the perfect reason to get fun with your champagne, so try something new this year! What’s better than some good ol’ bubbly? PINK bubbly. Cuz everything’s better in pink. Check out more ideas and details on our Pinterest page.
