Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park Counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado continues to see very strong job growth, adding 72,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months—an impressive increase of 2.7%. Through the first five months of 2018, the state added an average of 7,300 new jobs per month. I expect this growth to continue through the remainder of the year, resulting in about 80,000 new jobs in 2018.

In May, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%. This is slightly above the 2.6% we saw a year ago but still represents a remarkably low level. Unemployment remains either stable or is dropping in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Boulder, where just 2.2% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 3.1%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the second quarter of 2018, 17,769 homes sold—a drop of 2.4% compared to the second quarter of 2017.
  • Sales rose in 5 of the 11 counties contained in this report, with Gilpin County sales rising by an impressive 10.7% compared to second quarter of last year. There were also noticeable increases in Clear Creek and Weld Counties. Sales fell the most in Park County but, as this is a relatively small area, I see no great cause for concern at this time.
  • Slowing sales activity is to be expected given the low levels of available homes for sale in many of the counties contained in this report. That said, we did see some significant increases in listing activity in Denver and Larimer Counties. This should translate into increasing sales through the summer months.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth is being hobbled by a general lack of homes for sale, and due to a drop in housing demand.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • With strong economic growth and a persistent lack of inventory, prices continue to trend higher. The average home price in the region rose
    9.8% year-over-year to $479,943.
  • The smallest price gains in the region were in Park County, though the increase there was still a respectable 7%.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Clear Creek and Gilpin Counties, where prices rose by 28.9% and 26%, respectively. All other counties in this report saw gains above the long-term average.
  • Although there was some growth in listings, the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, driving home prices higher.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home remained at the same level as a year ago.
  • The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in most markets contained in this report. Gilpin County saw a very significant jump in days on market, but this can be attributed to the fact that it is a very small area which makes it prone to severe swings.
  • In the second quarter of 2018, it took an average of 24 days to sell a home. Of note is Adams County, where it took an average of only 10 days to sell a home.
  • Housing demand remains very strong and all the markets in this report continue to be in dire need of additional inventory to satisfy demand.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers as a few counties actually saw inventories rise. However, while I expect to see listings increase in the coming months, for now, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on July 31, 2018 at 4:20 pm
Fort Collins | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Economy | Tagged , , , , , ,

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

It’s good news for the state of Colorado, which saw annual employment grow in all of the metropolitan markets included in this report. The state added 63,400 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, an impressive growth rate of 2.4%. Colorado has been adding an average of 5,300 new jobs per month for the past year, and I anticipate that this growth rate will continue through the balance of 2018.

In February, the unemployment rate in Colorado was 3.0%—a level that has held steady for the past six months. Unemployment has dropped in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Denver, where 3.1% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 4.6%.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the first quarter of 2018, there were 11,173 home sales—a drop of 5.6% when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
  • With an increase of 5.3%, home sales rose the fastest in Boulder County, as compared to first quarter of last year. There was also a modest sales increase of 1.2% in Larimer County. Sales fell in all the other counties contained within this report.
  • Home sales continue to slow due to low inventory levels, which were down 5.7% compared to a year ago.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth continues to stagnate due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

  • Strong economic growth, combined with limited inventory, continued to push prices higher. The average home price in the markets covered by this report was up by 11.7% year-over-year to $448,687.
  • Arapahoe County saw slower appreciation in home values, but the trend is still positiveand above its long-term average.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Boulder County, which saw prices rise 14.8%. Almost all other counties in this report experienced solid gains.
  • The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists and home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates.

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the first quarter of 2017.
  • Homes in all but two counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out where it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home.
  • During the first quarter, it took an average of 27 days to sell a home. That rate is down 2 days from the fourth quarter of 2017.
  • Housing demand remains strong and would-be buyers should expect to see stiff competition for well-positioned, well-priced homes.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. In the first quarter of 2018, I have left the needle where it was in the fourth quarter of last year. Even as interest rates trend higher, it appears as if demand will continue to outweigh supply. As we head into the spring months, I had hoped to see an increase in the number of homes for sale, but so far that has not happened. As a result, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on June 26, 2018 at 5:00 am
Fort Collins | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Housing Trends, Real Estate Market Update | Tagged , , , ,

Beautiful Home in the Heart of Windsor!

This beautifully updated home at  807 Table Mountain Ct located in central Windsor boasts new paint, new carpet, and new windows with updated flooring in the kitchen and bathroom. Move in ready, this home has a large and bright living space connecting to the kitchen with an eat in dining space. The lower level has a large master suite with walk-in closet, custom shelving and remodeled master bath. Enjoy the lower level room for additional living space, office or workout room. Call Jacqueline Feil for your private showing at 970-402-7509 or click the link below for more details.

http://windermerenoco.com/listing/79091432

Posted on May 14, 2018 at 11:31 am
Fort Collins | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

52.8 Acres of Land in Fort Collins!

With endless mountain views at 6015 S Timberline Rd .  This underdeveloped site is an incredible investment/development opportunity. Located in a prime location in Fort Collins, it is currently zoned FA1. Surrounding properties have been rezoned to LMN, with all multifamily development. Backs to Southridge golf course. No showings of the house until under contract. Also available for purchase at market value are 10 shares of CBT and 1 share of New Mercer Ditch. $500K of water rights. Call Kyle Basnar for more information at 970-481-5689 or click the link below for more details.

http://windermerenoco.com/listing/77374327

 

Posted on April 10, 2018 at 3:57 pm
Fort Collins | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

This analysis of the Metro Denver and Northern Colorado real estate markets is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 45,300 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 1.7%. Although that is a respectable number, employment growth has been trending lower in 2017 as the state reaches full employment. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, there was annual employment growth in all areas other than Grand Junction, where employment was modestly lower. There was solid growth in Greeley and Fort Collins, where annual job growth was measured at 4% and 2.7%, respectively.

In November, the unemployment rate in the state was a remarkably low 2.9%, down from 3% a year ago. The lowest reported unemployment rates were seen in Fort Collins and Boulder, where only 2.5% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate (3.7%) was in Grand Junction.

The state economy has been performing very well, which is why the wage growth over the past year has averaged a very solid 3.3%. I expect the labor market to remain tight and this will lead to wages rising at above-average rates through 2018.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the fourth quarter of 2017, there were 14,534 home sales—a drop of 2.0% compared to a year ago.
  • Sales again rose the fastest in Boulder County, which saw sales grow 17.9% versus the third quarter of 2016. There were also reasonable increases in Weld and Larimer Counties. Sales fell in all other counties contained within this report because there is such a shortage of available homes for sale.
  • As I discussed in my third quarter report, sales slowed due to the lack of homes for sale. The average number of homes for sale in the markets in this report is down by 8.2% from the fourth quarter of 2016.
  • The takeaway is that sales growth has moderated due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

  • With continued competition for the limited number of available homes, prices continued their upward trend. Average prices were up 9.8% year-over-year to a regional average of $431,403, which was slightly higher than the third quarter of 2017.
  • There was slower appreciation in home values in Boulder County, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Weld County, which saw prices rise 14.3%. There were also solid gains in almost all other counties considered in this report.
  • The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, which means we can expect home prices to continue appreciating at above-average rates for the foreseeable future.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home rose by two days when compared to the fourth quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all but three counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out, where it took an average of just 21 days for homes to sell.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home last quarter. This is up nine days over the third quarter of 2017.
  • Housing demand remains strong in Colorado and this will continue with well-positioned, well-priced homes continuing to sell very quickly.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the fourth quarter of 2017, I have chosen to leave the needle where it was in the previous quarter. Listings remain scarce, but this did not deter buyers who are still active in the market. As much as I want to see more balance between supply and demand, I believe the market will remain supply-constrained as we move toward the spring, which will continue to heavily favor sellers.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on February 1, 2018 at 1:21 pm
Fort Collins | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Economy, Market News | Tagged , , , , ,

Get Real

A story ran this week which highlighted the number of people who have moved out of Colorado.

Let’s get real, there are still a large number of people moving to Colorado.

In fact, 223,000 moved to Colorado from another state last year according to the latest American Community Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The net migration into our state (after subtracting out people who left) was 30,859 people.

In Northern Colorado the net migration looks like this:

  • Larimer County = 7,001 people
  • Weld County = 7,117 people

So what does that mean for housing? Knowing that, on average, 2.5 people live in each household, the number of new housing units required for these new residents looks like this:

  • Larimer County = 2,800 new housing units
  • Weld County = 2,847 new housing units
Posted on December 8, 2017 at 8:29 am
Fort Collins | Category: Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

Colorado’s Home Price Appreciation Rankings

New Rankings

The new rankings are out from the Federal Housing Finance Authority which ranks all 50 states plus close to 300 individual metropolitan markets for home price appreciation.

We trust this source because they track actual sales of individual homes versus simply looking at average prices. Their home price index is one of the key pieces of research that we follow closely.

There are a few significant items in their latest report (which is hot off the press).

  • Colorado is ranked 2nd for one-year appreciation, 5th for five-year appreciation and 1st for twenty five-year appreciation. Prices across Colorado have increased 324% since the end of 1991.
  • Fort Collins/Loveland is ranked 10th out of all the metro areas for one-year appreciation with a 12.1% increase.
  • Greeley is in at 21st with 10.73% appreciation

In case you are curious, the hottest market in the country is Mount Vernon, Washington with 15.1% yearly appreciation. Atlantic City is ranked last with a 0.8% price decrease.

It’s clearly “good to be us” as we are one of the highest-performing markets over the long-haul.

Check out the FHFA recap video here:

Here is the data straight from FHFA’s report:

U.S. house prices rose 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI).   House prices rose 6.6 percent from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017.  FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was up 0.1 percent from May.

The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from mortgages sold to, or guaranteed by, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  FHFA has produced a video of highlights for this quarter.

Significant Findings

  • Home prices rose in 48 states and the District of Columbia between the second quarter of 2016 and the second quarter of 2017.  The top five states in annual appreciation were:  1) Washington 12.4 percent; 2) Colorado 10.4 percent; 3) Idaho 10.3 percent; 4) Florida 9.4 percent; and 5) Utah 9.2 percent.
  • Among the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S., annual price increases were greatest in the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (MSAD), where prices increased by 15.7 percent.  Prices were weakest in New Haven-Milford, CT, where they rose by 0.1 percent.
  • Of the nine census divisions, the Pacific division experienced the strongest increase in the second quarter, posting a 2.6 percent quarterly increase and a 8.9 percent increase since the second quarter of last year.  House price appreciation was weakest in the Middle Atlantic division, where prices rose 0.8 percent from the last quarter.

Source: FHFA

Posted on September 1, 2017 at 8:35 am
Fort Collins | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Economy | Tagged , ,

Fort Collins vs. Boulder

Because football season is upon us and the Rocky Mountain Showdown is right around the corner we thought we would re-visit one of our favorite topics…

Fort Collins vs. Boulder

We frequently are asked from our clients “Do you think Fort Collins is the next Boulder?” Let’s look at the numbers to gain some insight.

Specifically, we will simply show you a snapshot of activity in each market so far this year.

Median Price:

  • Boulder = $962,250 (up 7% over last year)
  • Fort Collins = $379,000 (up 5 % over last year)

Number of Transactions:

  • Boulder = 389 (flat compared to last year)
  • Fort Collins = 1745 (flat compared to last year)

Current Inventory of Homes

The two markets are both experiencing higher prices as well as much higher inventory. Also, both markets have roughly the same amount of sales as last year.

The biggest difference, and the reason Boulder prices have gone to stratospheric levels, is the fact that Boulder’s market is severely supply constrained. They have triple the amount of open space in and around the City compared to Fort Collins which limits home building and pushes prices up towards 7-figures.

No matter which team you root for, we hope you enjoy the kickoff to football season!


** Keep an eye out for details on our upcoming annual event, the Windermere Tailgate Party! Hosted on Friday, October 13th, 2017, we will celebrate CSU homecoming with food trucks, face painting, music and tons of fun! **

2016 Windermere Tailgate Party

Posted on August 25, 2017 at 9:27 am
Fort Collins | Category: Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , ,

Should We Wait?

Here’s a question on the mind of some buyers today…

“Should we just wait?” They see how active the market is. They see prices up and inventory down. They wonder if they would be better off to wait.

There are two powerful forces at work in our market and two key reasons why we think the greatest risk for a buyer today is to wait.

The first is prices. If you research the last 40 years of prices in our market what you will notice is that Larimer County’s average yearly increase is 5% and Weld County’s is 4%.

You will also notice that prices increase much more often than they decrease. In 40 years, prices have gone up in Larimer County 34 times and down only 6 times. The most prices have ever gone down is 3%.

The second force at work is interest rates. Rates today are essentially half of their 40-year average. Money is on sale, half off!

When rates increase (like they have in the last 6 months), you can measure the direct impact to a buyer’s payment using the 1%/10% rule. For every 1% increase in rate, the payment increases 10%.

So, if a buyer chooses to wait, the odds are they will be met with higer prices and higer interest rates.

We just released a video which covers this important topic. Check it out below.

Posted on May 26, 2017 at 9:13 am
Fort Collins | Category: Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

The Next Boulder?

The hottest question we get in Northern Colorado is this “do you think Fort Collins is the next Boulder?”

Let’s look closely at that question and start with what is similar. They are both beautiful college towns nestled against the foothills. They both have affordability issues which push real estate buyers to satellite communities (what is happening is Wellington is not unlike what happened in Louisville).

Yet there are differences at a fundamental level that will forever keep these two places very different from each other. For example the average Household Income in Boulder is 60% higher than Fort Collins. Here is another big deal, Boulder is only half the size of Fort Collins (25 square miles versus 57 square miles). And get this, the City of Boulder owns 71 square miles of open space in and around the City.

Essentially Boulder is a small island surrounded by an ocean of open space inhabited by very high income-earners. That is why the average price of a single family home in Boulder is now over $1 million.

We put together a short video which shows you more detail about this hot question. Check it out:

Posted on February 24, 2017 at 8:31 am
Fort Collins | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,